Ascoli 2-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Ascoli (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ascoli face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Ternana at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ascoli are significantly better at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Ascoli have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Ternana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ternana in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Ternana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 41% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.39 xG and Ternana 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.055 / defence 0.882 | Ternana attack 0.851 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Ascoli games / 44 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 46% | Draw 32% | Ternana 22%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Ternana 4.55. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Ternana 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 46% | Draw 32% | Ternana 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Ascoli 1.39 / Ternana 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.055 / def 0.882 | Ternana attack 0.851 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ternana xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Ternana kick off?
Ascoli vs Ternana kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Ternana?
Ascoli 2 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Ascoli vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Ternana part of?
Ascoli vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 46% chance of winning, Ternana a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ascoli and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Ternana?
Record (4 meetings): Ascoli 3W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Ternana in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Ternana (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 1.05x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.09
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.29
0.90
Ternana xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.90 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.02 PPG from 44 outings (11W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.16 PPG, Ternana on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ascoli's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Ternana in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Ternana have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Ternana away?
Ascoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Ternana away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ternana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ascoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Ascoli
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 5, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Ternana?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 48%, Ternana 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ascoli) and 62% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 38% of games; Ternana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ascoli's recent matches and 57% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ascoli's recent games and 62% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Ternana tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ternana in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Ternana 2-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.39 xG and Ternana 0.90 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ternana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Ternana attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 46% | Draw 32% | Ternana 22%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 41%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.16 PPG, Ternana 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.