Pisa 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Pisa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Pisa against 1.20 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Venezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Pisa 1–2 Venezia — a Venezia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 59% and Venezia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Venezia 57%). Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.30 xG and Venezia 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.982 / defence 1.034 | Venezia attack 1.174 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.221. Data: built from Pisa's last 63 games and Venezia's last 63.
Result probabilities: Pisa 32% | Draw 27% | Venezia 41%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.08 | Draw 3.73 | Venezia 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 70% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 32% | Draw 27% | Venezia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Pisa 1.30 / Venezia 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.982 / def 1.034 | Venezia attack 1.174 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Venezia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Venezia kick off?
Pisa vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Venezia?
Pisa 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Pisa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Venezia part of?
Pisa vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 32% chance of winning, Venezia a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pisa and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.98) and Venezia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.17x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 63 games and Venezia's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.73
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
Venezia xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pisa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pisa and 1.48 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 23D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 26W 16D 21L from 63 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Pisa against 1.49 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 10D 11L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 10W 8D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.52 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 23D 22L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Venezia have gone 26W 16D 21L in their last 63 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Venezia away?
Pisa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.29 PPG; Venezia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Pisa or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Venezia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Venezia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Pisa 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 64%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 48% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Venezia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pisa's games and 52% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 48% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Pisa's recent matches and 58% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.30 xG and Venezia 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.17 / defence 1.00, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 32% | Draw 27% | Venezia 41%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Venezia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.22 PPG, Venezia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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