Feralpisalo 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to take on Feralpisalo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Feralpisalo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Feralpisalo have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ascoli — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Feralpisalo) versus 1.00 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Feralpisalo, 1 for Ascoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Feralpisalo trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Ascoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 56% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.50 xG and Ascoli 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.092 / defence 1.166 | Ascoli attack 0.931 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.227. Data: 25 Feralpisalo games / 63 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 33%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ascoli 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feralpisalo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 50% | Ascoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Feralpisalo 1.50 / Ascoli 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 1.092 / def 1.166 | Ascoli attack 0.931 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Feralpisalo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ascoli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Ascoli kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Ascoli?
Feralpisalo 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Ascoli part of?
Feralpisalo vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 40% chance of winning, Ascoli a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feralpisalo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Feralpisalo and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Ascoli in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feralpisalo Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.68
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
Ascoli xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.33 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ascoli sit at 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.84 PPG, Ascoli on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feralpisalo's home form reads 3W 3D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ascoli have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 8D 12L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Ascoli away?
Feralpisalo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 1.00 PPG; Ascoli away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Feralpisalo 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 50%, Ascoli 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Feralpisalo) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 58% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Ascoli tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Feralpisalo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Feralpisalo 0-1 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.50 xG and Ascoli 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Feralpisalo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Ascoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 33%, with Feralpisalo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 56%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.84 PPG, Ascoli 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.