Sudtirol 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bari at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Bari.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Bari in Serie B (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Sudtirol (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sudtirol's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Bari have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bari's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.50 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bari edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Sudtirol 1–2 Bari — a Bari win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 36% | Bari 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.18 xG and Bari 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.774 / defence 1.158 | Bari attack 0.862 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.227. Sudtirol's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 63 games and Bari's last 63.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.96 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 40% (last 10 home games) | Bari 70% (last 10 away games).

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