Venezia 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Modena (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Venezia, 1.00 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Venezia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Modena in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Venezia 2W, Modena 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.17 xG and Modena 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.311 / defence 1.157 | Modena attack 0.993 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.217. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Venezia games / 62 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 54% | Draw 22% | Modena 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Modena 4.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 80% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 54% | Draw 22% | Modena 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Venezia 2.17 / Modena 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.311 / def 1.157 | Modena attack 0.993 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Venezia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Modena xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Modena kick off?
Venezia vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Modena?
Venezia 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Venezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Modena part of?
Venezia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 54% chance of winning, Modena a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Venezia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Venezia and Modena in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.99x) against Venezia's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.51
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.56
1.40
Modena xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
3%
36.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Venezia and 1.40 for Modena, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 26W 15D 21L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Venezia against 1.31 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Modena have gone 9W 7D 14L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.21 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 26W 15D 21L in their last 62 games (1.50 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Modena away?
Venezia's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.73 PPG; Modena away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 5-0 on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Modena have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Modena?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Venezia, 63% for Modena — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Venezia and 57% for Modena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 63% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Venezia's matches and 57% of Modena's.
Do Venezia and Modena tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Modena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Modena finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.17 xG and Modena 1.40 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.31 / defence 1.16 against Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 54% | Draw 22% | Modena 24%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 56%, Modena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.50 PPG, Modena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.