Cosenza 1-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Brescia at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Brescia.

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Match Analysis

Cosenza host Brescia at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Brescia have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 1.30 PPG versus Brescia's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 80% of Brescia's (from Cosenza's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Cosenza, 3 for Brescia and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Cosenza 0–1 Brescia — a Brescia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Brescia in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 49% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Brescia 31%). Note also that Brescia surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.08 xG and Brescia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.892 / defence 1.048 | Brescia attack 0.889 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Data: built from Cosenza's last 68 games and Brescia's last 68.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 33% | Draw 32% | Brescia 35%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.03 | Draw 3.16 | Brescia 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cosenza 60% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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