Modena 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Bari at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 0.90 PPG versus Bari's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Bari and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Modena 1–1 Bari — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Bari trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 59% versus Bari 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.36 xG and Bari 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.898 / defence 1.043 | Bari attack 0.738 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.209. Bari's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Bari's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Modena's last 68 games and Bari's last 68.
Result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Bari 25%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.19 | Draw 3.37 | Bari 4.06. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 60% (last 10 home games) | Bari 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Bari 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Modena 1.36 / Bari 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.898 / def 1.043 | Bari attack 0.738 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Bari FAQs
What time does Modena vs Bari kick off?
Modena vs Bari kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Bari?
Modena 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Modena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Bari part of?
Modena vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 46% chance of winning, Bari a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Modena and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Modena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 68 games and Bari's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
0.93
Bari xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Modena and 0.93 for Bari, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 22D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.43 PPG from 68 outings (24W 25D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.25 PPG, Bari on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 12W 12D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 34 away games (11W 11D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.19 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
Modena (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Modena vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Bari in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 22D 25L in their last 68 games (1.25 PPG), while Bari have gone 24W 25D 19L in their last 68 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Bari away?
Modena's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.41 PPG; Bari away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Modena or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bari in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won Bari 4-1 Modena.
Modena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Bari?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Modena and 32% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Modena's recent games and 32% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Modena's recent matches and 65% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Bari finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.36 xG and Bari 0.93 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Bari attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 46% | Draw 30% | Bari 25%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Bari 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.25 PPG, Bari 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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