Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Feralpisalo welcome Cosenza to Stadio Leonardo Garilli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feralpisalo's home record at Stadio Leonardo Garilli: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 1.30 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Feralpisalo have won 0, Cosenza 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.06 xG and Cosenza 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.956 / defence 1.240 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Data: 31 Feralpisalo games / 69 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Cosenza 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 60% | Cosenza 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Feralpisalo 1.06 / Cosenza 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.956 / def 1.240 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cosenza xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Cosenza kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Feralpisalo 2 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Cosenza part of?
Feralpisalo vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 32% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Cosenza in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.96) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.22
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Cosenza xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.16 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 8W 6D 17L from 31 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.97 PPG, Cosenza on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feralpisalo have managed 3W 3D 9L from 15 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.03 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.80 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feralpisalo and Cosenza runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
2
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Cosenza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 53%, Cosenza 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Feralpisalo) and 13% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 33% of games; Cosenza in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 33% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 13% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Cosenza tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Cosenza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 32, as Feralpisalo and Cosenza drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.06 xG and Cosenza 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Cosenza attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 55%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.97 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.