Venezia 2-3 Reggiana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Reggiana encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Reggiana travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia in Serie B (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Reggiana stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Venezia have won 0, Reggiana 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Venezia 0–1 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Venezia in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Reggiana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 70% | Reggiana 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.46 xG and Reggiana 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.389 / defence 1.094 | Reggiana attack 0.868 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.389 — their 1.46 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 68 games and Reggiana's last 30.

Result probabilities: Venezia 43% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.31 | Draw 3.54 | Reggiana 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Reggiana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 80% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).

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