Cremonese 2-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Como at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Cremonese — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Cremonese have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Como stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Como away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 2.10 PPG versus Como's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Cremonese hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Como and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Cremonese 3–1 Como — a Cremonese win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Cremonese and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 48% versus Como 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Como 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.17 xG and Como 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.982 / defence 0.829 | Como attack 0.977 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.248. Data: built from Cremonese's last 28 games and Como's last 66.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.66 | Draw 3.04 | Como 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Cremonese 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cremonese's last 10 home games and Como's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Como 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Como | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cremonese 1.17 / Como 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.982 / def 0.829 | Como attack 0.977 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Como xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Como FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Como kick off?
Cremonese vs Como kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Como?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Como.
Where is Cremonese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Como part of?
Cremonese vs Como is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Como a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Como will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cremonese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 28 games and Como's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.04
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.18
1.01
Como xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.01 for Como, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 20D 26L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (25W 24D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.21 PPG, Como on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 10W 9D 14L across their last 33 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 13D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Como
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Como in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 20D 26L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Como have gone 25W 24D 17L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.18 PPG; Como away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Como in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 May 2026, when Como won Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Cremonese's record when hosting Como specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 4, Como have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Como?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 39%, Como 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cremonese) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Como in 36%; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Como in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Como matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Cremonese's recent matches and 73% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Como 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Como 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.17 xG and Como 1.01 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Como attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 33% | Como 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 46%, Como 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.21 PPG, Como 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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