Como 3-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus Pisa in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Como (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Como's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Como, 1.50 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Como, 2 for Pisa and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Como 1–1 Pisa — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 45% | Pisa 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Como surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.120 / defence 0.877 | Pisa attack 0.982 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.234. Data: built from Como's last 67 games and Pisa's last 67.
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.28 | Draw 3.49 | Pisa 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Como 50% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Como 1.40 / Pisa 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.120 / def 0.877 | Pisa attack 0.982 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pisa xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Como vs Pisa kick off?
Como vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Pisa?
Como 3 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Como vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Pisa part of?
Como vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Pisa a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Como and Pisa will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Como vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Como's attack rating (1.12) and Pisa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.98x) against Como's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Como's last 67 games and Pisa's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.49
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Como xG
Total xG
2.46
1.06
Pisa xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Como and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Como and 1.06 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Como have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 25W 24D 18L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 20W 24D 23L from 67 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Como against 1.25 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 33 home games (16W 11D 6L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 9W 13D 11L from their last 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.24 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Como (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Como vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Como and Pisa in coming into this match?
Como have gone 25W 24D 18L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while Pisa have gone 20W 24D 23L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Pisa away?
Como's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.79 PPG; Pisa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Como or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Como and Pisa, the earliest from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won Como 5-0 Pisa on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Como
3
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Como and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Como and Pisa?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Como) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Pisa in 36%; Pisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Como's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Como's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Como's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Pisa 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 45%, Pisa 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.48 PPG, Pisa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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