Parma 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Parma welcome Brescia to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Parma have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Parma's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Parma have won 3, Brescia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Parma 2–0 Brescia — a Parma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 52% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 46% | Brescia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.50 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.262 / defence 0.961 | Brescia attack 0.872 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.243. Parma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Parma's last 66 games and Brescia's last 66.
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.43 | Brescia 4.04. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 90% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Parma 1.50 / Brescia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.262 / def 0.961 | Brescia attack 0.872 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Brescia xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Parma vs Brescia kick off?
Parma vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Brescia?
Parma 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Parma vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Brescia part of?
Parma vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Brescia a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 66 games and Brescia's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.43
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Parma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.04
Brescia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Parma and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Parma and 1.04 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 68 games, going 34W 19D 15L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.16 PPG from 68 outings (18W 25D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 19W 9D 6L across their last 34 home games, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 34 away games (7W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
Parma (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Parma vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Brescia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 34W 19D 15L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while Brescia have gone 18W 25D 25L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Brescia away?
Parma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.94 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brescia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Parma have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Parma's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Parma
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 4, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2024: Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Brescia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 53%, Brescia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Parma) and 38% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Brescia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Parma's recent matches and 53% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Parma's recent games and 38% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Parma's recent matches and 71% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.50 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.26 / defence 0.96 against Brescia attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Brescia 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 46%, Brescia 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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