Venezia 3-1 Bari – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Bari encounter.

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Match Analysis

Venezia host Bari at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Venezia — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Venezia have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Bari away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Venezia have won 1, Bari 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Venezia 3–0 Bari — a Venezia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Venezia in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Bari in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 58% | Bari 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.96 xG and Bari 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.347 / defence 1.087 | Bari attack 0.702 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.236. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.347 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bari's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Venezia's last 66 games and Bari's last 66.

Result probabilities: Venezia 60% | Draw 23% | Bari 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.66 | Draw 4.30 | Bari 6.01. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 80% (last 10 home games) | Bari 50% (last 10 away games).

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