Venezia 3-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Venezia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Bari at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bari away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Venezia have won 1, Bari 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Bari in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 58% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.96 xG and Bari 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.347 / defence 1.087 | Bari attack 0.702 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.236. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Venezia games / 66 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 60% | Draw 23% | Bari 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Bari 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 80% | Bari 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 60% | Draw 23% | Bari 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 1.96 / Bari 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.347 / def 1.087 | Bari attack 0.702 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Venezia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bari xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bari kick off?
Venezia vs Bari kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Bari?
Venezia 3 - 1 Bari.
Where is Venezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bari part of?
Venezia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 60% chance of winning, Bari a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Bari 2W.
What form are Venezia and Bari in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.35x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.30
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.90
0.94
Bari xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
42.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Venezia and 0.94 for Bari, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 28W 16D 23L from 67 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 24W 26D 17L across 67 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.49 PPG, Bari on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 16W 8D 9L from 33 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 11W 11D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.22 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 28W 16D 23L in their last 67 games (1.49 PPG), while Bari have gone 24W 26D 17L in their last 67 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bari away?
Venezia's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.70 PPG; Bari away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bari in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Venezia go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bari 0-3 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Bari?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Venezia) and 30% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 46% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Venezia's recent games and 30% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Bari 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.96 xG and Bari 0.94 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.35 / defence 1.09 against Bari attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 60% | Draw 23% | Bari 17%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 58%, Bari 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.49 PPG, Bari 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.