Lazio 0-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lazio face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to Lazio versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Lazio (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lazio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
AS Roma's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Lazio against 1.60 for AS Roma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Lazio, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Lazio 1–0 AS Roma — a Lazio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 37% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 41% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.60 xG and AS Roma 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.083 / defence 0.838 | AS Roma attack 1.017 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.174. Data: built from Lazio's last 49 games and AS Roma's last 49.
Result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.95 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 4.21. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 50% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lazio 1.60 / AS Roma 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.083 / def 0.838 | AS Roma attack 1.017 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lazio (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.00
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Lazio vs AS Roma kick off?
Lazio vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Lazio 0 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Lazio vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs AS Roma part of?
Lazio vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 51% chance of winning, AS Roma a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lazio and AS Roma will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lazio vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lazio's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.02x) against Lazio's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 49 games and AS Roma's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.00
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.60
1.00
AS Roma xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
20.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lazio and 1.00 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lazio's recent record stands at 27W 9D 13L from 49 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 15L across 49 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Lazio against 1.63 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 14W 5D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 8W 7D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lazio are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Lazio (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Lazio vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 27W 9D 13L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 23W 11D 15L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or AS Roma away?
Lazio's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.96 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Lazio or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lazio and AS Roma, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won AS Roma 3-0 Lazio on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 46%, AS Roma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lazio) and 50% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Lazio's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lazio and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lazio's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lazio's recent matches and 79% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lazio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and AS Roma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.60 xG and AS Roma 1.00 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.6 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against AS Roma attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 41%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.84 PPG, AS Roma 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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