Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fiorentina face Bologna.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Fiorentina have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.80 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Fiorentina 1–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bologna — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Bologna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 45% | Bologna 49%). Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.15 xG and Bologna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.027 / defence 1.049 | Bologna attack 0.948 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.182. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 49 games and Bologna's last 49.

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Bologna 37%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.84 | Draw 3.55 | Bologna 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights