AS Roma 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lecce (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for AS Roma against 1.30 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AS Roma 1W, Lecce 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 50% versus Lecce 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 46% | Lecce 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.68 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.323 / defence 0.830 | Lecce attack 0.926 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.179. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 AS Roma games / 48 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Lecce 5.00. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 50% | Lecce 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 1.68 / Lecce 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.323 / def 0.830 | Lecce attack 0.926 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lecce xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lecce kick off?
AS Roma vs Lecce kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is AS Roma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lecce part of?
AS Roma vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 56% chance of winning, Lecce a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lecce (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.32) and Lecce's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.93x) against AS Roma's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.13
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.58
0.91
Lecce xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.91 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 11D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (11W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.90 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lecce away?
AS Roma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.87 PPG; Lecce away: 0.96 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lecce in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-1 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when AS Roma 1-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lecce?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Lecce 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for AS Roma and 26% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lecce in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 44% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 26% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lecce tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lecce in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.68 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Lecce attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Lecce 20%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 46%, Lecce 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.