Salernitana 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lazio (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salernitana face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Lazio at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Salernitana — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Salernitana are significantly better at Stadio Arechi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lazio have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Salernitana have won 1, Lazio 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lazio in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Lazio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 54% | Lazio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.04 xG and Lazio 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.826 / defence 1.356 | Lazio attack 0.954 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.157. Data: 50 Salernitana games / 50 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 2.08. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 50% | Lazio 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Salernitana 1.04 / Lazio 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.826 / def 1.356 | Lazio attack 0.954 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lazio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Lazio xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Lazio kick off?
Salernitana vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Lazio?
Salernitana 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Salernitana vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Lazio part of?
Salernitana vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salernitana and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Lazio?
Record (4 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 3W.
What form are Salernitana and Lazio in?
Salernitana (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salernitana's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.86
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.50
Lazio xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.50 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 20D 21L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 27W 10D 13L from 50 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 13W 4D 8L from 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.46 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Lazio in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 9W 20D 21L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Lazio have gone 27W 10D 13L in their last 50 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.20 PPG; Lazio away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Lazio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Lazio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when Lazio won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salernitana's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salernitana
0
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Lazio?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 2, Lazio have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when Lazio 4-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 52%, Lazio 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Salernitana) and 36% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 56%; Salernitana have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Salernitana's recent matches and 28% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Salernitana's recent games and 36% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Lazio tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lazio in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Lazio 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.04 xG and Lazio 1.50 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Lazio attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Salernitana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Lazio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.