Bologna 2-0 Torino – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face Torino.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Bologna — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Bologna at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Torino stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Torino away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.70 PPG versus Torino's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bologna have won 1, Torino 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended Bologna 0–1 Torino — a Torino win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Torino in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus Torino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Torino 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Torino have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.28 xG and Torino 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.977 / defence 0.760 | Torino attack 0.992 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.173. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling Torino's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 50 games and Torino's last 50.

Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 29% | Torino 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.20 | Draw 3.47 | Torino 3.89. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 50% (last 10 home games) | Torino 20% (last 10 away games).

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