Lecce 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bologna — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lecce, 2 for Bologna and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 2–3 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bologna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 55% versus Bologna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 35% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.05 xG and Bologna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.850 / defence 1.061 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.169. Data: 51 Lecce games / 51 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 29% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lecce 40% | Bologna 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 33% | Draw 29% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Lecce 1.05 / Bologna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.850 / def 1.061 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bologna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Bologna kick off?
Lecce vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Lecce vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Bologna part of?
Lecce vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 33% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lecce and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Lecce and Bologna in?
Lecce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.85) and Bologna's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
33%
3.08
29%
3.42
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Bologna xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lecce and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lecce and 1.16 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Lecce have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 18D 22L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 19W 18D 14L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 8D 10L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 18D 14L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.12 PPG; Bologna away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lecce
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lecce at 60%, Bologna at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Lecce) and 64% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lecce's games and 72% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lecce's recent games and 64% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Bologna tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bologna in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.05 xG and Bologna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 33% | Draw 29% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 35%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.