Cork City 4-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates UCD at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cork City face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cork City welcome UCD to Turner's Cross in Premier Division (matchday 3). Kick-off is Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, UCD stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
UCD's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.12 xG and UCD 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.834 / defence 1.251 | UCD attack 0.987 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.033. Cork City's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. Data: built from Cork City's last 2 games and UCD's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.51 | Draw 2.83 | UCD 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates UCD as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on UCD offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Cork City 2 games, UCD 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cork City 1.12 / UCD 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.834 / def 1.251 | UCD attack 0.987 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: UCD (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
UCD xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cork City vs UCD FAQs
What time does Cork City vs UCD kick off?
Cork City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 March 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs UCD?
Cork City 4 - 0 UCD.
Where is Cork City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs UCD part of?
Cork City vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 29% chance of winning, UCD a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making UCD the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cork City and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cork City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cork City's attack rating (0.83) and UCD's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cork City's last 2 games and UCD's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
UCD Win
29%
3.51
35%
2.83
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
UCD xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cork City vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cork City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cork City and 1.28 for UCD, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
UCD
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Cork City (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cork City
Pre-Season
UCD
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won Cork City 4-0 UCD.
Cork City's record when hosting UCD specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cork City
1
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Cork City vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and UCD?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cork City have won 2, UCD have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cork City and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and UCD?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cork City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat UCD 4-0 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.12 xG and UCD 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cork City beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. UCD landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against UCD attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 29% | Draw 35% | UCD 36%, with UCD to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.