UCD 0-4 Derry City – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Derry City (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Derry City.

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Analysis

Derry City make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

UCD's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, UCD have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Derry City's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 0.70 PPG clear of UCD over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Derry City have the stronger record — 4 wins to UCD's 0, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2022, ended UCD 0–3 Derry City — a Derry City win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Derry City have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

UCD — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Derry City — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus Derry City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | Derry City 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.21 xG and Derry City 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.972 / defence 1.376 | Derry City attack 1.164 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 0.899. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling UCD's projected output down. UCD's defence rating of 1.376 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 39 games and Derry City's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: UCD 30% | Draw 29% | Derry City 41%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.34 | Draw 3.42 | Derry City 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: UCD 50% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (UCD 39 games, Derry City 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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