Shelbourne 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Bohemians 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.26 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.922 / defence 0.922 | Bohemians attack 1.099 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.033. Data: 38 Shelbourne games / 38 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Bohemians 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 40% | Bohemians 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Shelbourne 1.26 / Bohemians 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.922 / def 0.922 | Bohemians attack 1.099 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.92) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.10x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
37%
2.69
36%
2.78
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Bohemians xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.05 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 14L across 36 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.28 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.25 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.17 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, Bohemians 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 61% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Bohemians 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.26 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Bohemians attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.14 PPG, Bohemians 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.