Kooteepee 1-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kooteepee face Haka.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kooteepee and Haka meet at Arto Tolsa Areena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Kooteepee's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kooteepee at home: 3W 3D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haka have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haka away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Kooteepee, 2 for Haka and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Kooteepee 2–4 Haka — a Haka win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 37% versus Haka 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 37% | Haka 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.49 xG and Haka 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.844 / defence 1.161 | Haka attack 0.803 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.223. Haka's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kooteepee's projected output up. Data: built from Kooteepee's last 19 games and Haka's last 41.
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 44% | Draw 28% | Haka 28%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 2.26 | Draw 3.62 | Haka 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kooteepee as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kooteepee if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kooteepee 33% (last 9 home games) | Haka 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 20 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Monday 21 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 44% | Draw 28% | Haka 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Kooteepee 1.49 / Haka 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.844 / def 1.161 | Haka attack 0.803 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kooteepee vs Haka FAQs
What time does Kooteepee vs Haka kick off?
Kooteepee vs Haka kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 21 August 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Kooteepee 1 - 2 Haka.
Where is Kooteepee vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Haka part of?
Kooteepee vs Haka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 20) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 44% chance of winning, Haka a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kooteepee and Haka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kooteepee vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.84x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.80x) against Kooteepee's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Kooteepee's last 19 games and Haka's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.62
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.63
1.14
Haka xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kooteepee vs Haka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.14 for Haka, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kooteepee come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 5D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Haka sit at 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Kooteepee against 0.89 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kooteepee's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across their last 9 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 9 away games (2W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kooteepee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kooteepee are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.16 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 68%.
Defensively: Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee (Home) vs Haka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kooteepee
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Kooteepee vs Haka Form FAQs
What form are Kooteepee and Haka in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Haka have gone 3W 8D 8L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Haka away?
Kooteepee's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 1.33 PPG; Haka away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Haka in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Kooteepee and Haka, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kooteepee have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won Haka 0-3 Kooteepee on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Kooteepee
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Kooteepee vs Haka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Haka?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Kooteepee have won 3, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Haka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Haka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kooteepee see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Kooteepee) and 33% (Haka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kooteepee) and 67% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kooteepee have failed to score in 44% of games; Haka in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kooteepee vs Haka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kooteepee and Haka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 33% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kooteepee and Haka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kooteepee's recent games and 67% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Haka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 89% of Haka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat Kooteepee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Kooteepee 1-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.49 xG and Haka 1.14 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Haka attack 0.80 / defence 1.42, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 44% | Draw 28% | Haka 28%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 37%, Haka 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 1.05 PPG, Haka 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.