Haka 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Haka welcome Mariehamn to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 1W 7D 2L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 0.70 PPG, Mariehamn 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Haka, 2 for Mariehamn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 60% and Mariehamn 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 58% | Mariehamn 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.60 xG and Mariehamn 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.135 / defence 1.153 | Mariehamn attack 1.088 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.138. Data: 40 Haka games / 40 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Mariehamn 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 90% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Haka 1.60 / Mariehamn 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.135 / def 1.153 | Mariehamn attack 1.088 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Haka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Mariehamn xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Haka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Haka 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Haka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Mariehamn part of?
Haka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 41% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Haka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
Record (3 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in?
Haka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.14) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.82
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Haka xG
Total xG
3.03
1.43
Mariehamn xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Haka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Haka and 1.43 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 13D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.07 PPG from 45 outings (12W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.36 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 8W 9D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.29 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mariehamn in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Mariehamn away?
Haka's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.57 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haka at 81%, Mariehamn at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Haka) and 52% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Haka's games and 57% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Haka's recent games and 52% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 19, as Haka and Mariehamn drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.60 xG and Mariehamn 1.43 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Mariehamn attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 41% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 58%, Mariehamn 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.36 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.