AC Oulu 0-3 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Oulu at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Oulu vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Ilves meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ilves (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Ilves have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in AC Oulu's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AC Oulu, 1 for Ilves and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended AC Oulu 2–1 Ilves — a AC Oulu win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ilves half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 61% versus Ilves 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 63% | Ilves 50%). Note also that Ilves surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while AC Oulu recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.167 / defence 1.111 | Ilves attack 0.763 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.180. Ilves's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from AC Oulu's last 41 games and Ilves's last 41.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 40% | Draw 31% | Ilves 29%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.53 | Draw 3.21 | Ilves 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Oulu at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AC Oulu 60% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 20 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 40% | Draw 31% | Ilves 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG AC Oulu 1.21 / Ilves 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.167 / def 1.111 | Ilves attack 0.763 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ilves xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Oulu vs Ilves FAQs
What time does AC Oulu vs Ilves kick off?
AC Oulu vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
AC Oulu 0 - 3 Ilves.
Where is AC Oulu vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Ilves part of?
AC Oulu vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 20) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 40% chance of winning, Ilves a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AC Oulu and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will AC Oulu vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 1.17x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.76x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from AC Oulu's last 41 games and Ilves's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.21
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.20
1.00
Ilves xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Oulu vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.00 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 22W 9D 15L from 46 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 19L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Oulu by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ilves heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 10W 4D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 5W 9D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.26 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Ilves
Blended
AC Oulu (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Oulu
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ AC Oulu vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while Ilves have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Ilves away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.62 PPG; Ilves away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AC Oulu and Ilves, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won AC Oulu 0-4 Ilves on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Oulu vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Oulu have won 2, Ilves have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: AC Oulu 1-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 52%, Ilves 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AC Oulu) and 43% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 33% of games; Ilves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Oulu vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Oulu and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 52% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Oulu and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AC Oulu's recent games and 43% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 67% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 0-3 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.00 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Ilves attack 0.76 / defence 0.83, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 40% | Draw 31% | Ilves 29%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 63%, Ilves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.