Haka 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 1W 8D 1L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Haka's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Haka have won 1, KuPS 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–3 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus KuPS 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | KuPS 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.06 xG and KuPS 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.092 / defence 1.059 | KuPS attack 1.228 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.243. KuPS's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. KuPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Haka games / 42 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49%. Fair-value odds: Haka 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | KuPS 2.04. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 100% | KuPS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Haka 1.06 / KuPS 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.092 / def 1.059 | KuPS attack 1.228 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: KuPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.62
KuPS xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 24% chance of winning, KuPS a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
Record (4 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 1 | KuPS 2W.
What form are Haka and KuPS in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.09x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
24%
4.14
26%
3.78
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haka xG
Total xG
2.68
1.62
KuPS xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haka and 1.62 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 14D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.09 PPG from 47 outings (30W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 8W 10D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 1.95 points per game from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.55 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while KuPS have gone 30W 8D 9L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.55 PPG; KuPS away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, KuPS in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and KuPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 82%, KuPS 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 36% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Haka's games and 41% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Haka's recent games and 36% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KuPS in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 21, as Haka and KuPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.06 xG and KuPS 1.62 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against KuPS attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 24% | Draw 26% | KuPS 49%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, KuPS 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.