Zlin 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zlin face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Pardubice at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.40 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Zlin, 1 for Pardubice and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Zlin 1–0 Pardubice — a Zlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 64% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 61% | Pardubice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.66 xG and Pardubice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.138 / defence 1.194 | Pardubice attack 0.974 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.270. Data: built from Zlin's last 57 games and Pardubice's last 57.
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.42 | Draw 4.02 | Pardubice 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 80% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Zlin 1.66 / Pardubice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.138 / def 1.194 | Pardubice attack 0.974 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Pardubice xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Pardubice kick off?
Zlin vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Pardubice?
Zlin 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Zlin vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Pardubice part of?
Zlin vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Pardubice a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.14) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 57 games and Pardubice's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.02
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.13
1.48
Pardubice xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Zlin and 1.48 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 13W 22D 29L from 64 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 34L across 64 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.95 PPG, Pardubice on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 11W 10D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pardubice's away record stands at 10W 3D 18L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.03 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 13W 22D 29L in their last 64 games (0.95 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 19W 11D 34L in their last 64 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Pardubice away?
Zlin's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.39 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pardubice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2026, when Pardubice won Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Zlin's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zlin
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 71%, Pardubice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Zlin) and 52% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Pardubice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Zlin's games and 45% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Zlin's matches and 52% of Pardubice's.
Do Zlin and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Zlin's recent matches and 68% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 28, as Zlin and Pardubice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.66 xG and Pardubice 1.48 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.14 / defence 1.19 against Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 61%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.95 PPG, Pardubice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.