Plzen 1-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slavia Praha at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Doosan Aréna — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.30 PPG versus Slavia Praha's 2.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plzen have won 1, Slavia Praha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 61% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 66% | Slavia Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.38 xG and Slavia Praha 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.258 / defence 0.990 | Slavia Praha attack 1.233 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.261. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Plzen games / 57 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Slavia Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Slavia Praha 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 34% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 1.38 / Slavia Praha 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.258 / def 0.990 | Slavia Praha attack 1.233 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Slavia Praha xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Plzen 1 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slavia Praha part of?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 34% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 1W.
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.26x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.87
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.54
Slavia Praha xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Plzen and 1.54 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 11D 16L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.35 PPG from 62 outings (45W 11D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Plzen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.90 points per game from 30 outings (16W 9D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.52 scored and 0.81 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 11D 16L in their last 62 games (1.87 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 45W 11D 6L in their last 62 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.87 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 60%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Plzen and 50% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plzen's games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plzen's matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Plzen and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slavia Praha 1-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.38 xG and Slavia Praha 1.54 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slavia Praha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Slavia Praha attack 1.23 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 34% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 41%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 66%, Slavia Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.87. Form was overturned, with Plzen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.