České Budějovice 3-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as České Budějovice face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
České Budějovice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
České Budějovice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Slovan Liberec edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended České Budějovice 0–1 Slovan Liberec — a Slovan Liberec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus Slovan Liberec 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Slovan Liberec 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.47 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.902 / defence 0.982 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.921 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.241. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 57 games and Slovan Liberec's last 57.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.26 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG České Budějovice 1.47 / Slovan Liberec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.902 / def 0.982 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.921 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Slovan Liberec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
České Budějovice 3 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 44% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.90) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.92x) against České Budějovice's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from České Budějovice's last 57 games and Slovan Liberec's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.57
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.12
Slovan Liberec xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.12 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 16W 9D 34L from 59 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 23L across 59 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.29 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 12W 3D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.46 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
České Budějovice (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
České Budějovice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 16W 9D 34L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.34 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 4-0 České Budějovice on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, České Budějovice have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 45%, Slovan Liberec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (České Budějovice) and 55% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games; Slovan Liberec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 59% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of České Budějovice's matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 72% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Slovan Liberec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Slovan Liberec 3-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.47 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 44% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Slovan Liberec 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.97 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.