Pardubice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CFIG Arena this season.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pardubice, 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Pardubice 2W, Mlada Boleslav 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 38% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.95 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.741 / defence 0.981 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.898 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.251. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Pardubice games / 58 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 32% | Mlada Boleslav 38%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Mlada Boleslav 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 60% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 30% | Draw 32% | Mlada Boleslav 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Pardubice 0.95 / Mlada Boleslav 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.741 / def 0.981 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.898 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mlada Boleslav xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Pardubice 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 30% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (4 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.90x) against Pardubice's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.10
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.05
1.10
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.10 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 12D 30L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 20W 18D 22L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Pardubice against 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (8W 8D 13L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 7D 14L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.43 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Pardubice's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.10 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
1
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Pardubice) and 52% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Pardubice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Pardubice 1-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.95 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.10 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 30% | Draw 32% | Mlada Boleslav 38%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 38%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.