Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hradec Králové away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Teplice 1.20 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Teplice have won 1, Hradec Králové 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Teplice 0–1 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 60% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 53% | Hradec Králové 48%). Note also that Hradec Králové surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.36 xG and Hradec Králové 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.921 / defence 0.807 | Hradec Králové attack 0.786 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.217. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Teplice's last 56 games and Hradec Králové's last 56.
Result probabilities: Teplice 50% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.00 | Draw 3.37 | Hradec Králové 4.92. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 50% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Teplice 1.36 / Hradec Králové 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.921 / def 0.807 | Hradec Králové attack 0.786 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Teplice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hradec Králové xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 50% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 56 games and Hradec Králové's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.37
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.14
0.77
Hradec Králové xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Teplice and 0.77 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 16D 25L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 20W 15D 25L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.22 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 12D 6L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 8W 9D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 47% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Teplice's recent matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.36 xG and Hradec Králové 0.77 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 50% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 53%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.