Karviná 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Karviná welcome Plzen to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Karviná, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Karviná winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 54% versus Plzen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karviná 62% | Plzen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 0.87 xG and Plzen 2.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.684 / defence 1.515 | Plzen attack 1.412 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.240. Karviná's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 2.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Karviná games / 56 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 10.00 | Draw 6.67 | Plzen 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG Karviná 0.87 / Plzen 2.65 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.684 / def 1.515 | Plzen attack 1.412 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Plzen (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
2.65
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Plzen kick off?
Karviná vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Karviná 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Karviná vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Plzen part of?
Karviná vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 10% chance of winning, Plzen a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Karviná and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Karviná and Plzen in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.68x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 2.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
10%
10.32
15%
6.51
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.53
2.65
Plzen xG
10.32
10%
Home win
6.51
15%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
7%
14.21
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
1%
146.65
31%
3.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Karviná and 2.65 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 5W 4D 17L from 26 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 3D 6L across 26 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 4W 1D 8L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 9W 1D 3L across 13 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Plzen in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 5W 4D 17L in their last 26 games (0.73 PPG), while Plzen have gone 17W 3D 6L in their last 26 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 54%, Plzen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Karviná and 69% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Karviná's games and 69% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Karviná's matches and 69% of Plzen's.
Do Karviná and Plzen tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Plzen in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karviná's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 0.87 xG and Plzen 2.65 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karviná fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.68 / defence 1.51 against Plzen attack 1.41 / defence 0.82, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 10% | Draw 15% | Plzen 75%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 62%, Plzen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.