Sparta Praha 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sparta Praha's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Sparta Praha's favour (2.50 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sparta Praha, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Sparta Praha 1–3 Mlada Boleslav — a Mlada Boleslav win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 55% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.173 / defence 0.733 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.898 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.238. Sparta Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Mlada Boleslav's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 56 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 56.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 18%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.81 | Draw 3.78 | Mlada Boleslav 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.61 / Mlada Boleslav 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.173 / def 0.733 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.898 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Mlada Boleslav xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 55% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.90x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 56 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.78
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.42
0.81
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
27.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.81 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha's recent record stands at 42W 12D 4L from 58 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 21L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Praha have managed 23W 4D 1L from their last 28 home games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.45 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 42W 12D 4L in their last 58 games (2.38 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.61 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Sparta Praha on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 57%, Mlada Boleslav 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sparta Praha and 54% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sparta Praha's matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 64% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.73 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 55% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 18%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.