Baník Ostrava 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Teplice.

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Fixture Analysis

Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Teplice have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 1.30 PPG versus Teplice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Teplice 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 1–0 Teplice — a Baník Ostrava win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 57% versus Teplice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 55% | Teplice 53%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Baník Ostrava recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.45 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.825 / defence 0.984 | Teplice attack 0.882 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.236. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 55 games and Teplice's last 55.

Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 28% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.23 | Draw 3.55 | Teplice 3.70. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).

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