FK Jablonec 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FK Jablonec face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Mlada Boleslav have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have the stronger record — 3 wins to FK Jablonec's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–3 Mlada Boleslav — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Mlada Boleslav have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 61% and Mlada Boleslav 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 51% | Mlada Boleslav 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Mlada Boleslav have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / defence 1.075 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.972 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 59 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 59.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.01 | Draw 3.36 | Mlada Boleslav 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.23 / Mlada Boleslav 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / def 1.075 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.972 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 33% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.97x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 59 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.36
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 25L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 22L across 61 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 13D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.44 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.43 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec on 28 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
4
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: FK Jablonec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 30, as FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.23 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.31 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 33% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 37%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 51%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.11 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.