FK Jablonec 3-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: FK Jablonec 2W, Karviná 0W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 60% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Karviná 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.945 / defence 1.041 | Karviná attack 0.836 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 30 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Karviná 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 80% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.42 / Karviná 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.945 / def 1.041 | Karviná attack 0.836 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Karviná xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 3 - 2 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Karviná a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 3 | Karviná 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.94) and Karviná's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.84x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.46
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.54
1.12
Karviná xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.12 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 12D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.83 PPG from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.83 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 4W 7D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 12D 12L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Karviná have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.27 PPG; Karviná away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 73%, Karviná 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 53% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Karviná in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 3-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.42 xG and Karviná 1.12 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 29% | Karviná 29%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.00 PPG, Karviná 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.