Bohemians 1905 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pardubice at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bohemians 1905 — this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Pardubice have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Pardubice away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Bohemians 1905, 0.90 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Pardubice — Pardubice have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 1–0 Pardubice — a Bohemians 1905 win.

The head-to-head data gives Bohemians 1905 an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Pardubice 42%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.03 xG and Pardubice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.744 / defence 0.914 | Pardubice attack 0.957 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 59 games and Pardubice's last 59.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 33% | Pardubice 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.14 | Draw 3.04 | Pardubice 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 20% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).

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