Bohemians 1905 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 0W 8D 2L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians 1905 at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with FK Jablonec managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 1–0 FK Jablonec — a Bohemians 1905 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus FK Jablonec 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | FK Jablonec 55%). Note also that FK Jablonec surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.620 / defence 0.841 | FK Jablonec attack 1.167 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.193. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 55 games and FK Jablonec's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.21 | Draw 3.23 | FK Jablonec 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet FK Jablonec are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.04 / FK Jablonec 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.620 / def 0.841 | FK Jablonec attack 1.167 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.62x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.17x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 55 games and FK Jablonec's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.23
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.17 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (16W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.13 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.35 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 24L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.28 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won FK Jablonec 0-3 Bohemians 1905 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, FK Jablonec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians 1905) and 59% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 34% of games; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 59% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 72% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.62 / defence 0.84 against FK Jablonec attack 1.17 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.