Bohemians 1905 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 8D 2L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus FK Jablonec 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | FK Jablonec 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.620 / defence 0.841 | FK Jablonec attack 1.167 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.193. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Bohemians 1905 games / 55 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | FK Jablonec 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet FK Jablonec are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.04 / FK Jablonec 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.620 / def 0.841 | FK Jablonec attack 1.167 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.62x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.17x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.23
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.17 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (16W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.13 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.35 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 24L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or FK Jablonec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.28 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, FK Jablonec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians 1905) and 59% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 34% of games; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 59% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.62 / defence 0.84 against FK Jablonec attack 1.17 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 38%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.33 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.