Teplice 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Teplice have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.50 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Teplice have won 0, Slovácko 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Teplice 0–2 Slovácko — a Slovácko win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Slovácko 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Slovácko 44%). Note also that Slovácko surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.966 / defence 0.809 | Slovácko attack 1.047 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.201. Data: built from Teplice's last 54 games and Slovácko's last 54.
Result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.23 | Draw 3.50 | Slovácko 3.77. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Teplice 1.40 / Slovácko 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.966 / def 0.809 | Slovácko attack 1.047 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slovácko xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.97x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 54 games and Slovácko's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.50
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
Slovácko xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Teplice and 1.02 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 16D 24L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.49 PPG from 59 outings (24W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.24 PPG, Slovácko on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.62 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Slovácko in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Slovácko 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovácko?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 52% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 28% of games; Slovácko in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Teplice's recent matches and 72% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Slovácko attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 45% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.24 PPG, Slovácko 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.