Sichuan Jiuniu 0-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.051 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.136. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 1 games and Tianjin Teda's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 29% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 42%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.48 | Draw 3.41 | Tianjin Teda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Sichuan Jiuniu 1 games, Tianjin Teda 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 29% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 / Tianjin Teda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.051 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 29% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 0.86x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 1 games and Tianjin Teda's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
29%
3.48
29%
3.41
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.47
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.37 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won Sichuan Jiuniu 0-4 Tianjin Teda.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-4 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 29% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 42%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.