Changchun Yatai 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tianjin Teda travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai in Super League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Changchun Yatai's games and 60% of Tianjin Teda's (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda 1, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 0–0 Tianjin Teda — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / defence 1.092 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.286 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.165. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack rating of 1.286, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 32 games and Tianjin Teda's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 48%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.70 | Draw 4.08 | Tianjin Teda 2.06. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Changchun Yatai 32 games, Tianjin Teda 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.16 / Tianjin Teda 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / def 1.092 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.286 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Tianjin Teda xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 27% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.05x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 32 games and Tianjin Teda's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
27%
3.70
24%
4.08
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.80
1.64
Tianjin Teda xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
18.98
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.64 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 20D 23L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.27 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 10D 11L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 13W 8D 10L from their last 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 20D 23L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.29 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won Tianjin Teda 1-4 Changchun Yatai.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
6
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 58%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Changchun Yatai) and 39% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 39% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 73% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Changchun Yatai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Changchun Yatai 0-1 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.64 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.29 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 48%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.27 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.