Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 2D 4L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Chengdu Better City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% versus Chengdu Better City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Chengdu Better City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.823 / defence 1.112 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.075 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.180. Data: 31 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 31 Chengdu Better City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 41%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Chengdu Better City 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Chengdu Better City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 / Chengdu Better City 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.075 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Chengdu Better City xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 28% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.82x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
28%
3.59
31%
3.25
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.53
1.41
Chengdu Better City xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.41 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 12L across 64 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 12D 12L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 15W 9D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Chengdu Better City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 38% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 44%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 44% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Chengdu Better City 1-0 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.41 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 41%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Chengdu Better City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.