Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Changchun Yatai.

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Analysis & Preview

Changchun Yatai travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 11:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 0.90 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–0 Changchun Yatai — a Qingdao Jonoon win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Changchun Yatai 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.87 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.041 / defence 1.088 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.060 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.229. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 31 games and Changchun Yatai's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.13 | Draw 4.03 | Changchun Yatai 3.55. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Qingdao Jonoon 31 games, Changchun Yatai 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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