Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Huanghai at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai meet at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.01 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.893 / away 2.123. Data: 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 1 Qingdao Huanghai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 15% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Huanghai 59%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Huanghai 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Huanghai (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Huanghai at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 15% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Huanghai 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.01 / Qingdao Huanghai 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.893 / away 2.123 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Huanghai (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Qingdao Huanghai xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 26 April 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 15% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Huanghai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Qingdao Huanghai's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Huanghai's attack (0.85x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Huanghai Win
15%
6.82
26%
3.81
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
3.08
2.08
Qingdao Huanghai xG
6.82
15%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
2%
54.29
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.08 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2021, when Qingdao Huanghai 1-4 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Shenzhen Ruby FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Shenzhen Ruby FC and Qingdao Huanghai drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.01 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 2.08 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Qingdao Huanghai landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 15% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Huanghai 59%, with Qingdao Huanghai to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.