Shandong Luneng 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huadu Stadium plays host to Shandong Luneng versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 April 2021 at 08:35 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.05 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.932 / away 1.784. Data: 1 Shandong Luneng games / 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 19% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2021, 08:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 19% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.05 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.932 / away 1.784 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 08:35 on Tuesday 27 April 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 19% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (0.98) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.85x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
19%
5.18
30%
3.30
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.79
1.74
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
29.64
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.74 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-4 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.05 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.74 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 19% | Draw 30% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Shandong Luneng win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.