Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Guangzhou R&F travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Qingdao Huanghai. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.19 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.126 / defence 1.114 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.966 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 0.835 / away 1.322. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Qingdao Huanghai games / 2 Guangzhou R&F games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 28% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 39%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Guangzhou R&F 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou R&F are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 28% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.19 / Guangzhou R&F 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.126 / def 1.114 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.966 / def 1.269 | league avg home 0.835 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Guangzhou R&F xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 28% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Huanghai's attack at 1.13x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
28%
3.59
34%
2.98
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.62
1.42
Guangzhou R&F xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.42 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Guangzhou R&F
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2021, when Guangzhou R&F 4-2 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Guangzhou R&F?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Guangzhou R&F edge out Qingdao Huanghai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.19 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.42 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Huanghai fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 28% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 39%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.