Wuhan Zall 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Wuhan Zall welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 0.97 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.868 / away 1.414. Data: 1 Wuhan Zall games / 1 Shanghai Shenhua games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 32% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 32% | Shanghai Shenhua 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Wuhan Zall 0.97 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.868 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Shanghai Shenhua xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 29 April 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 24% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (0.97) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
24%
4.18
32%
3.12
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.35
1.38
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.64
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.38 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2022, when Wuhan Zall 2-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Wuhan Zall 1-3 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 0.97 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 32% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.