Shandong Luneng 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 74% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shandong Luneng at 1.80 PPG versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Shandong Luneng, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Shandong Luneng 1–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 49% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.60 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.481 / defence 0.657 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.036 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.481 — their 2.60 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.657), which is pulling Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 55 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 55.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 74% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.35 | Draw 5.87 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 11.21. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 74% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Shandong Luneng 2.60 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.481 / def 0.657 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.036 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 74% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.48) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 55 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.87
9%
11.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.44
0.84
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
11.21
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
7%
13.41
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
150.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.84 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Shandong Luneng have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 34W 11D 10L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 19W 17D 19L from 55 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shandong Luneng have posted 2.54 PPG from their last 26 home games (21W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 6D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 34W 11D 10L in their last 55 games (2.05 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 19L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.54 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2024: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 38%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 65% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 65% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 65% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 92% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.60 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.84 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.48 / defence 0.66 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 74% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 9%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 60%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.92 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.