Henan Jianye 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 0.80 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 0, Tianjin Teda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 52% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 46% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.836 / defence 0.908 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Henan Jianye games / 54 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 60% | Tianjin Teda 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Henan Jianye 1.02 / Tianjin Teda 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.836 / def 0.908 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.939 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Tianjin Teda xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.84) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
32%
3.10
34%
2.96
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.08
1.06
Tianjin Teda xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.06 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 15D 19L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 20D 14L from 54 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.39 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.65 PPG from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 8D 8L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.31 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 20D 14L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.65 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Tianjin Teda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Henan Jianye) and 38% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 31%; Henan Jianye have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 38% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 32% | Draw 34% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 46%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.39 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.