Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Dalian Aerbin have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Shijiazhuang Y. J.. A 0.80 PPG lead over Dalian Aerbin (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) — Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dalian Aerbin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–1 Dalian Aerbin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57% versus Dalian Aerbin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | Dalian Aerbin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.32 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.814 / defence 0.907 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.772 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.245. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 54 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 54.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 23%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.22 | Draw 3.11 | Dalian Aerbin 4.39. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 21 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.32 / Dalian Aerbin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.814 / def 0.907 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.772 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 21) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 45% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.81x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.77x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 54 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.11
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.19
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.87 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 17D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (15W 18D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 1.17 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 7W 10D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 7D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 17D 19L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.15 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2023: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Dalian Aerbin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 59% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 37% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 52% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 59% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 65% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.32 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 23%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Dalian Aerbin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.31 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.